Experts from the PKO Bank Polski announced they believe that wages will rise, based on latest figures showing record numbers of job vacancies, in a meeting with journalists on Thursday.Their chief economist, Radosław Bodys, admits while the level of vacancies may be due to mismatches between jobseeker skills and vacancy requirements, the demand is still there.
He compares triple wages in Germany, and talks about the “war of the wages” in an extended transcript:
Both part of domestic demand and external demand part of the export, both are strong.
We have the highest-ever number of open vacancies, since records began. This shows that the improvement in the labour market, measured by the decline in unemployment will last. Over time, this should generate an increase in wages.
This should result in an improvement in the labour market in the form of a faster decline in unemployment, either in the form of wage growth … The Outlook for domestic demand is solid.
I am surprised the number of vacancies has not dropped. On the contrary, it grew while unemployment was falling, which could suggest, on the one hand, that there are more jobs, or, it could be indicative of mismatched qualifications for the job.
While wage levels are the closest thing to the hearts of most Poles, there were further key facts raised by the economists.
He drew attention to the strength of Polish exports, which is growing very rapidly. Interestingly, despite fears of a decline in exports of food after the introduction of Russian trade sanctions, food exports overall went up last year by almost 5 percent, while the decline in exports to Russia went down by 30 percent. Bodys attributes the replacement gains with increasing demand from the Eurozone.
Other key statements:
- The highest trade surplus ever of 0.5% GDP is expected due to falling oil prices and demand for Polish exports.
- Low inflation is expected due to food prices staying low and falling commodity prices – just above 0%.
- The base interest rate is not expected to increase until at least the end of 2016.
- The stock market has not seen great profits this year, trailing European markets by 15%, due in part to concerns about a bank tax, and issues with Swiss Franc mortgages.
- Poland has high foreign currency debts in both private and public sectors, up to 40% of GDP, balanced by EU funding, meaning Poland should not have to seek further debt.
- They estimate at the end of Q3, 1 Euro will equal 4.25 złoty.
SEE ALSO: Poland has EU’s cheapest food (and consumer electronics)
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